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In assessing the calamities that could befall Australia, and that may require volunteer support, it becomes immediately apparent that any of these events could be a catalyst to start another calamity. Several risks are closely interrelated. No attempt has been made to assign probabilities to these risks. The brief risk assessments of particular events are listed below in alphabetical order: Avalanches: While Australia’s snow-covered Alpine areas are as large as the whole of Switzerland, the mountain ranges are sparsely populated. Mountains are not high (the highest just over 7,300 feet). While avalanches, some deadly, have occurred, they are probably not a major hazard. That is, except if they were to destroy major civil works of the Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Scheme. Catastrophe could “snow-ball” if power stations, distribution mains or major water storage dams are destroyed. Bush fires: Australia is a dry continent and bushfires are a naturally-occurring disaster. The huge bushfires some years ago could have incapacitated the national capital and Seat of Government. This would almost certainly have adversely affected national government administration, defense preparedness and any other effort to assist in natural or manmade emergencies. Similar fires have again occurred in the Sydney suburbs. It is a particularly typical Australian risk because of its low and irregular rainfall pattern; the native eucalyptus trees and, as in the Australian Capital Territory, large pine plantations. The damage caused to the Kosciusko National Park, especially at the higher elevations, will take decades or more to repair. Crop and Life Stock diseases: Australia, because of its geographic isolation, does not have many of the crop diseases prominent elsewhere in the world. Strict control is imposed to prevent these diseases from entering the country; however, accidental or deliberate spreading of diseases could devastate agricultural production and life stock herds and in the extreme lead to starvation and economic devastation. Culture Clash: It’s long since Arthur Caldwell had to swallow his wordplay when he said, “Two Wongs don’t make a White.” It’s also not all that long ago that Al Grasby dared to state the obvious in that Australia is and will remain a multi-cultural society. Australia has absorbed its huge post WWII immigration without too much cultural upheaval. However, as minorities out of the mainstream of Australian life become more dominant, and if economic conditions are tough, there could be trouble ahead particularly, if any such group is ostracized because of racism or economically disadvantaged. Cyclones (Hurricanes): The north and northeastern part of Australia are in the cyclone belt. The cyclone that hit Darwin in the mid-1900 is still in everyone’s memory. Both the north and the northeast are within the cyclone belt. One of the possible effects of global warming is that Australia could face future cyclones at a higher intensity and frequency. Droughts: Australia is a dry continent. With the current instability in weather patterns the frequency and duration of droughts could increase. This could immediately result in consequential disasters like fire; life stock losses; crop failures and drinking water shortages. Inadequate water supply would cause society, as we know it now, to disintegrate and turn into anarchy. Perhaps no other continent is that vulnerable to the adverse effects of droughts Earthquakes: While in pre-history Australia was subject to earthquakes, at present the continent has only a few “hot spots” notably in South Australia. Minor earthquakes have been felt along the Great Dividing Range, particularly in Victoria. Yet, apart from local risks, major earthquakes in “the ring of fire” that includes the Indonesian archipelago, Papua and New Guinea and part of the Southern Pacific could be devastating to Australia; especially, if a major eruption would block out the sunlight over Australia for any extended period of time. Economic dependency: Australia has underpinned its population and economic growth through massive foreign borrowing and foreign trade. Australia has, reportedly, the largest per capita debt of any country in the world. Should for any international monetary realignment this cash inflow diminish or worse should existing be loans recalled, Australia could face international bankruptcy possibly leading to a large devaluation of its currency. Imports, on which Australia depends to sustain its economy would become more expensive. This, in turn, could give rise to severe inflation making it more difficult for people to make ends meet. This could cause social and economic dislocation and possible civil unrest. Energy prices:
Because of its geographic isolation, the dispersal of
its population centers, and inadequate local supply of oil, Australia is
extremely vulnerable to fluctuation in the price of crude oil. Its fuel supply
lines are long and could be hazardous. Any political or military realignment far
from its borders could severely affect Australia’s supply of oil. Australia is
not a producer of nuclear energy. It has, however, substantial reserves of
natural gas. This, however, is far away from the major urban centers. Much of
this is said to be under foreign control or committed to long term contractually
agreed exports. The country still has huge reserves of coal; however, this is no
easy substitutes for oil and gas. Access to and the
price of energy remains the Achilles heel of Australia’s economy and, therefore,
the welfare and defense of the country. Floods: Australia is not known for major floods but periodically the deserts in the interior are flooded by rain storm that have nowhere to go. Global warming will increase solar evaporation in the South Pacific and could change rainfall patters for better of for worse. Not all that long ago the railway line between Adelaide in South Australia and Darwin in the Northern Territory was blocked by flood water – a very unusual occurrence as is the flooding of the usually dry river bed that runs through Alice Springs in the heart of Australia. Long term studies of precipitation in Australia’s alpine areas, has shown a marked drop in annual snow accumulation. All that can be said is that while flooding through rain appears unlikely, there are great uncertainties about how future weather patterns might affect Australia. Food supply: With global over-population and excessive food consumption in developed countries, inadequate food supply and declining quality (through us of pesticides, herbicides growth hormones) is under threat. Genetically modified and contaminated food in the food chain raise serious questions. Oceans are over-fished to the point of extinction and larger quantities of pesticides and fertilizers (the latter a fast depleting resource) puts stress on overgrazed and overexploited soils. Starvation in poorly endowed countries leads to rebellion and , on the other hand, excessive ingestion of food (in solid or liquid form) leads to obesity. Both extremes can be devastating to Australia's welfare. Global Warming: The effects of this phenomenon are strongly disputed and the Australian government is firmly on the site of the group which doesn’t take it too seriously and certainly does not appear to be prepared to do much to reduce the emission of ozone-destroying gasses. It’s a gamble but because of its geography and vulnerability, Australia has perhaps more at stake than any other country. It is estimated that substantial low-laying areas on Australia’s north and northwest coastlines might get flooded by the end of this century. A further long term risk is the flooding of Pacific island archipelagoes. These displaced people are like to seek refuge in Australia and New Zealand. Globalization: For all intent and purpose the US economy, while diminishing in importance, is still the main instrument driving the global economy. If the US economy sneezes the other major world economies might catch a cold. The US economy appears to be operating on the razor's edge. It incurs substantial monetary deficits and its external balance of trade appears to be unsustainable in the long run. Because of the inherent risks, US economic statistics should be watched and judged with caution. For example, US unemployment is given as about five (5) percent of the workforce, that is, of those that would like to work. However, it is claimed that many unemployed have given up the hope of finding work and therefore are no longer counted as unemployed. Also, while a large number of jobs have been created, it is alleged that those who find work do so at substantially lower rates of pay and with few, if any, benefits like health insurance. Evidence is said to show that American workers work longer hours, have fewer benefits and declining real wages. The US economy, it is said, is underwritten by the huge US dollar reserves held by China, Japan and that plowed back into American assets by Saudi Arabia. Any deterioration in relations with any of these nations or their inability or unwillingness to continue their support could have effects that would be felt far and wide. Globalization appears to be having the effect of exporting many jobs to lower labor cost countries. It has become a form of foreign aide. In the broader context, the question must be asked whether the US and other economically advanced economies will be able to sustain their disproportionate consumption of scarce natural resources. Australia is not insulated from the risk of another economic crisis started in another region. Lahars: These flows of volcanic ashes and pumice stone are a byproduct of volcanic activity. Because Australia is such a geologically old continent volcanic activity would seem highly unlikely. Landslides: Urban development, as in other countries, has intruded into some sensitive areas. Some of Sydney’s outer suburbs leaning against escarpment are said to be at risk. Major earthworks that were undertaken in support of the Snowy Mountains Hydroelectric Scheme, before environmental regulation was taken seriously, could have become destabilized because of the recent bushfires that razed large areas of the protective cover. While Australia’s geography is fairly flat the Great Dividing Range might have locations that could be affected by landslides. Meteoric Impact: There’s plenty of evidence that Australia has been impacted by major meteorites. It’s a huge continent and known strikes by meteors (e.g., Siberia, US Chesapeake Bay) are known to have had cataclysmic consequences not only in the immediate area of impact but in some cases for thousands of miles from the epicenter. The risk of a major urban area or toxic waste dumps being hit are remote but a major strike could be the end of local civilization for eons to come. Military Action: In the short run, the only nearby significant foreign military force is in Indonesia. Relations between the two countries has run hot and cold. Australia supported Indonesia’s territorial claim to the former Dutch-occupied New Guinea but that was a long time ago. At present there are still unresolved conflicts about the demarcation line between the two countries in respect of the seas that potentially hold major oil and gas reserves. Also, Indonesia has probably not as yet forgiven Australia for its UN-mandated lead role in expelling, with force, the pro-Indonesian faction from East Timor. The longer term relationship between the two countries will be much influenced by the emerging power of China. Traditionally, Indonesia is not pro-Chinese. Indonesia also faces increased pressures from religious fundamentalists. Its ability to manage such potential conflicts sensitively might well impact on relations with Australia. We can guess what the longer term developments might be. However, it suffices to say that Australia with its very small population would be more like an observer than an active participant in influencing its geo-political future. Australia’s possibly only chance to preserve itself as an independent nation is to follow the American pattern of absorbing both legal and illegal immigration from a large range of developing countries. The US has already accepted that within a few generations it will be a Spanish-speaking country. Strength and vitality would come from closer integration with Asia albeit at the sacrifice of its current identity. Natural resources: Australia’s wealth and range of natural resource are both an asset and a liability. In relatively normal times these resources can be a rich source of foreign exchange earnings. However, in times of militarization they could equally well become a prized resource to be conquered. Wise natural resource management is a challenge for Australia. Ozone Layer Depletion: Australia is already suffering from this damage to the Ozone belt. It is aggressively addressing the cancerous consequences but without an international agreement (such as, the Kyoto Agreement) on the limitation of the output of greenhouse gasses, the situation is likely to deteriorate. It could become a major public health and economic issue. Political (internal and external): Internal: The recent Sydney beach race riots are indicative of the ill effects of disparities in the distribution of economic opportunity among sectors in the community. These events are destabilizing and often require major resources to set right. It’s just not a matter of putting people in jails. The underlying dissatisfactions must be addressed. External: The Australian Government has closely aligned its policies with those of the United States. This means that whatever other might think about US policies will almost automatically reflect on Australia as well. A string of attacks on Australian tourists in Indonesia could well be taken as a sign. The prudent management of geopolitical relationships is vital to Australia’s interests. No doubt the Australian government has conducted its own risk assessment. International Accidents: Major wars have started because of real or imaginary political threats. Even though far away from Australia's borders, repercussions can be felt worldwide. The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in the Balkans was the trigger that started the First World War. The economic depression of the early-1930s laid the foundation for the rise of militaristic regimes and the start of World War II. The Tonkin Gulf "incident" sparked the Vietnam war. Persistent rumors circulate about a potential nuclear incident (aggressive or defensive) in Iran that might light the fuse of yet another world war. Population migrations: Australia, as it has learned already, is within small-boat trip range of close to 3 billion or more people in underdeveloped countries. Any major natural disaster or political upheaval in any of these countries could potentially trigger major population movements. These are currently experienced by the US already. It has, reportedly, between 10 and 12 million illegal immigrants. This is a worldwide phenomenon that is felt by Europe as well. With the widening gap between rich and poor and more efficient information exchange via the Internet there are grounds to believe that if not given a fair chance, for example under fair global agricultural trade policies, the disadvantaged will not wait too much longer and will come and try to get a share of what they think they are entitled to. These ongoing mass population movements have has caused civil unrest in several European countries, and most recently in France. Mass population waves are virtually impossible to stop unless tackled with the most draconian measures like the use of weapons of mass destruction. Huge areas of the Australian northern and western coastline would have to be put to waste and made uninhabitable to stop any wave (or more likely a tsunami) of illegal immigration had to be stopped. While this is a real doomsday scenario there is no reason for ignoring it. Public Works failures: Australia is dependent for its drinking water supply on major water storage dams and reservoirs. In the US there have already been failures of older structures. (The same can be said about the levies that failed to protect New Orleans from drowning.) Australia also has several major bridges and tunnels in both Sydney and Melbourne. Many are of relatively recent construction but failures of such bottlenecks public works, through one cause or another, would cause great inconvenience and economic disruption, at least. Surveillance: It's unclear whether increased surveillance of the Australian population and overseas visitors, in the long run, will be beneficial or not. Taking historical examples, internal spying and brutal repression of opposition in Stalin's USSR or Hitler's Third Reich still lead to the demise of these powerful dictatorships. We now live in a time where official intrusion in private activities has perhaps far outpaced what previously was possible. Especially, electronic communications (Internet, email, telephones, facsimiles. CB and amateur radio) are easily mined. But so are library visits, book purchases, credit cards, medical records, local and overseas travel and club affiliation and memberships. Taking part in a public rally might get you on official film and gatherings, for example of the peaceful Quakers, can get you reported. With today's optical scanning of mail for delivery, it's only one step before mail gets opened. Increased intelligence gathering assists fighting crime and wars. However, in the wrong hands such information could lead to commercial spying, profiling, and establishment and use of lists showing political, religious and sexual preferences. Potential risks might be compounded when one or other political ideology remains in power for long periods of time or where security agencies are not accountable. The socio-economic, political and national security impact of extensive surveillance remains unclear. But apathy is the exact opposite of excess surveillance (See below.) Toxic and radioactive spills: Australia is said to have sites where radioactive and, possibly also other toxic wastes are stored. A major earthquake or flood could dislodge such stockpiles and possibly dangerously pollute major urban areas or the major water catchments. The recent toxic spills in rivers in China are an example. The inherent risk associated with “depleted” nuclear fuels is well understood, it is thought, that both in Australia and elsewhere such deposits are not necessarily kept in absolutely failsafe storage. Transportation: The cost of the risk of rising energy prices has been addressed above. The other dimension that should be mentioned is the the large distances over which supplies must be transported in Australia. With few major highways, railway lines and airports, Australia is vulnerable. Public mass transportation of people and goods in Australia is, at best, embryonic. Improvements would take decades to design, build and implement and would require massive financial resources. Public Health risks: The quality and quantity of drinking water supply in Australia has been said to be marginal at best. The general health of the population is underwritten by good nutrition and sanitary habits. Yet, airborne diseases can cross international boundaries and natural barriers. The risk of the spread of Avian Flu is said to be all to real. Australia is not protected by its isolation. Reliance on overseas military support: Not all that long ago Australia relied on military support from Great Britain as the Mother country. It sought to secure this protection by supplying troops to fight in the Crimean and First World Wars. The Second World War showed that this policy was a pipedream. Instead Australia was saved in WWII from Japanese invasion through intervention by the United States Navy. In return, during the post-WWII period, Australia aligned itself, through the ANZUS Treaty, with the USA. It supplied troops to fight in Korea, Vietnam and at present in Afghanistan and Iraq. Today’s wars are no longer fought the conventional way with troops on the ground or armadas neatly lining themselves up on opposite sites as in a shooting gallery. As the US learned, huge surrounding oceans are no longer the military barrier that they used to be. The ongoing and future wars will probably be fought with long-range cruise missiles, airborne assaults or space-based missile systems. They will be fought also through interference with overseas supply lines and through electronic warfare to disable communication and information networks. However, these major weapon systems, while resulting in precise and heavy local devastation, ultimately have to be backed up with people on the ground. Australia is a large country. Sabotage: The risks of sabotage by insurgents or local sympathizers to vital infrastructure might be directly proportional to Australia’s ability to balance its relationships with diverse international economic, military, ethnic and religious groupings. As the recent arrests of persons allegedly surveying Australia’s only nuclear reactor demonstrates, we may not be dealing here with an imaginary risk. Australia has enemies within and outside its borders. With is widely separated network of power generating and distribution facilities; and air, rail and road networks; harbor facilities; major bridges and tunnels and, to some extent communication facilities, Australia must be regarded as extremely vulnerable to sabotage. Tsunamis: Australia is not totally secure from the effect of tsunamis. It is known that the tsunami that originated off Aceh in Indonesia did reach Australia’s west coast. Predictions are that another undersea earthquake that spawned the tsunami in December 2003 could be further east along the fault line of the tectonic plates and thus more directly impact Australia. The South Pacific also has the potential for tsunamis. Because of the long distances and speed over which tsunamis can travel, tsunamis should be included as one of Australia’s potential risks. In conclusion, this exposition of potential risks is shallow and, no doubt, detailed risk assessments for each of these events will be in the hands of Federal and State authorities. Australia has been called “The Lucky Country.” It is hope that it will remain lucky; however, it could equally well be called “The Sleepy Country.” Its relative isolation and comparatively high-standard of living appears to have lulled it into a blissful state of ignorance. It can be understood that individual citizens don’t have the resources to do their own calculations of national risks. That's what they elect politicians for. Yet politicians who call for personal sacrifice to serve the common good are probably not electable, neither in Australia or in other countries with democratically elected governments. It is said, therefore, that under democracy people get the government they deserve. Apathy is a serious manmade disaster! |
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